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Prediction markets for Times Internet

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.97%chance

808792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

716

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

825

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

94%chance

2417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5329

4976

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will there be a point in time where 50% of the US population can not access the internet at the same time?

Sep 17, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.35%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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