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Prediction markets for Times Internet

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

86394795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5595

161

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

94.09%chance

7428787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3939

418

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

10726001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1394

718

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

8512836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25%chance

196916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025?

Oct 10, 6:50 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

22544

OptionProbability

Can speak English

Announced before the end of October

has made statements calling the conflict in Gaza a genocide

normally seen in glasses

60 or older

Writes primarily in a language other than English

Male

fled their home country

70 or older

went to a school in europe at any point in life

bald

photo with Obama exists on the internet at time of announcement

net worth over ten million USD at time of declaration

Singer/Songwriter

Award delayed

has a tattoo known to the public

Last name starts with P

Originally from Africa

Originally from France

Originally from Spain

speaks Chinese

Given to more than one person

Award not accepted by winner

Posthumous

Award not given out

96

84

69

69

63

62

61

57

50

50

38

31

28

26

26

26

15

14

14

14

14

10

8

6

3

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will there be a point in time where 50% of the US population can not access the internet at the same time?

Sep 17, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.35%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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