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Prediction markets for Times of Israel

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

24.05%chance

26939614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

674

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2025?

Dec 17, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.12%chance

4111114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

625

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.21%chance

298402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6656

150

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 9:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

17.93%chance

132876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2139

467

In 2028, will Israel's GDP per Capita be higher than Sweden's?

Jun 5, 11:02 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

62.83%chance

82134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

14.42%chance

311958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

838

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

Jun 29, 8:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

41754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2729

366

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

221255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

913

Will any Israeli soldier be reported killed as a result of hostile activity on the Syrian front by December 31, 2025?

Jul 16, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.2%chance

7388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

813

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

39.24%chance

13323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

948

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.25%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

937

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