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(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.65%chance

7221457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7930

4041

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.04%chance

1017511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

357419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

1464

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

28.2%chance

806768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

686

When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?

Jan 4, 3:48 AMDec 29, 11:59 PM

292098

OptionProbability

before December 28 2027 (ET)

before 31 December 2026 (ET)

before September 2026 (ET)

before August 2026 (ET)

before June 2026 (ET)

before April 2026 (ET)

before March 2026 (ET)

before February 2026 (ET)

73

61

56

50

37

23

14

2

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

928

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

The United States gains >10,000 square kilometers of territory before Trump leaves office

Jan 13, 12:14 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

32.82%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

147

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7279

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Feb 2026

36

28

28

24

24

12

4

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030 or later

45

17

11

11

6

5

5

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

36

18

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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