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(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.17%chance

7321508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7995

3995

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3607

277

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.35%chance

4611855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4880

1150

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

17.59%chance

817518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3697

468

When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?

Jan 4, 3:48 AMDec 29, 11:59 PM

336584

OptionProbability

before December 28 2027 (ET)

before 31 December 2026 (ET)

before September 2026 (ET)

before August 2026 (ET)

before February 2026 (ET)

before March 2026 (ET)

before April 2026 (ET)

before June 2026 (ET)

67

47

20

6

0

0

0

0

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

928

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?

Jun 4, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

13601

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

65

49

41

28

6

1

UK productivity 2029

Oct 20, 11:49 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

5500

OptionProbability

Between "pessimistic" and "forecast" [107.6, 110.0)

Roughly forecast [110.0, 112.4)

Roughly "pessimistic" [105.2, 107.6)

Below "pessimistic" (-∞, 105.2)

Above forecast [112.4, ∞)

28

25

21

16

11

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030 or later

45

17

11

11

6

5

5

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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