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Prediction markets for Times Universal

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.39%chance

2112795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

3633

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.69%chance

366957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15830

14208

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

33

7

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Chinese university beats Harvard in Times Higher Education ranking by 2031?

Apr 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.15%chance

5315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

66

We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time

Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:57 PM

69.9%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

106

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