Times Universal News

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

48126850

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

It will have four playable characters on release

100

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

1576

925

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

1102

779

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

YES

1022

978

Chinese university beats Harvard in Times Higher Education ranking by 2031?

Apr 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.15%chance

5315

OptionVotes

YES

154

We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time

Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:57 PM

69.9%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

170

106

Times Universal News

Prediction markets for Times Universal

Prediction markets for Times Universal

Prediction markets for Times Universal

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Which computational universe do we live in?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

Chinese university beats Harvard in Times Higher Education ranking by 2031?

We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time

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