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Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

14

3 months ago

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.27%chance

412611081537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29000

16619

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.45%chance

1321058005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

885

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

110484229

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

London Breed

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

59

18

11

7

1

1

1

1

0

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.59%chance

472396309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3236

1913

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.32%chance

480364022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2874

2054

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.85%chance

120243647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139948

27580

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

503200664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5243

1084

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2746

1002

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.82%chance

85131473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2810

881

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3757067

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

32

28

25

15

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

22.95%chance

152071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

546

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