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Prediction markets for TO
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.05%chance
433011800090
OptionVotes
25976
17882
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
85.29%chance
1561087508
OptionVotes
1039
813
Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
123741585
OptionProbability
60
22
14
1
1
1
0
0
0
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.19%chance
315655506
OptionVotes
2744
2381
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
592573784
OptionVotes
3255
1407
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46%chance
547459947
OptionVotes
2969
2196
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63%chance
342228245
OptionVotes
2044
1314
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.23%chance
369133315
OptionVotes
2209
2181
OptionVotes
1644
1145
EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?
Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4574069
OptionProbability
34
32
20
14
OptionVotes
1670
601