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Top stories

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Authors

14

8 months ago

Prediction markets for TO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

442912024119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30183

16209

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1601087653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131882721

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

London Breed

69

26

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58238

10505

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

553464228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

2279

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.84%chance

211112342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1631

1155

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

34

32

20

14

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

28.52%chance

302800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1586

633

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