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Will CrowdStrike pay more than $10m of civil or criminal liability for today's incident before 2027?

Jul 19, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77.72%chance

3828943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

929

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

56.89%chance

16926597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12292

5247

Will the price of Bitcoin have tripled 2 years from today?

Aug 19, 3:15 PMAug 20, 3:59 AM

99.25%chance

9717658

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4429

11

Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in the US

Nov 6, 4:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91.71%chance

273583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2590

716

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.31%chance

213007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

738

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

72.93%chance

302352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

383

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

Will “woke (topic)” be more popular in the US on Google Trends five years from now than today?

Jun 4, 8:20 PMJun 5, 3:59 AM

23.98%chance

111317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

562

Will any WordPress or WP plugin infra fork have significant market share one year from today?

Oct 9, 1:32 AMOct 16, 6:59 AM

34.01%chance

11705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

723

Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today?

Mar 18, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.07%chance

15640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

663

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

33.19%chance

17383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

909

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

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