Together AI News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

5405

1263

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

50%chance

15028221

OptionVotes

YES

4104

1415

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.17%chance

8813634

OptionVotes

YES

2113

469

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.09%chance

179858

OptionVotes

YES

13202

6235

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

YES

1489

637

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.9%chance

451869

OptionVotes

YES

1147

717

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Jan 18, 8:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.99%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

985

944

Together AI News

Prediction markets for Together AI

Prediction markets for Together AI

Prediction markets for Together AI

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

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