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Prediction markets for Together AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.18%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

3047

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2867

552

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.19%chance

8012333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

1095

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10577

9472

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

637

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.42%chance

441839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

687

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Jan 18, 8:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.99%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

944

Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?

Sep 3, 1:32 PMSep 3, 1:31 PM

23.71%chance

12374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

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