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Prediction markets for Token

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

2911148

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2028 or later or never

2027

2024

54

25

10

8

2

GPT-5: >150k token context window

Apr 9, 1:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.26%chance

338609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4330

657

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.42%chance

122884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

661

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

Dec 21, 6:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.45%chance

92411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2526

396

Will the next major LLM by OpenAI use a new tokenizer?

Jun 17, 7:26 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

76.8%chance

441273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1376

876

Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?

Dec 14, 3:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.6%chance

81224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2973

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

34

18

13

13

11

11

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM

47%chance

7471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.28%chance

7469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.98%chance

1250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

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