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Prediction markets for Token

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

4535723

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later or never

2024

2025

52

24

22

1

1

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.95%chance

89570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9720

103

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.51%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

539

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

80.27%chance

41075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

496

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.98%chance

1250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.83%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

986

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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