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Prediction markets for TOL

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

71.19%chance

8834517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

246

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

67.41%chance

418599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1438

695

Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?

Apr 5, 10:29 PMApr 5, 10:27 PM

22.75%chance

478436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

JRR Tolkien will be canonized by the Catholic Church by 2250

Jul 10, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.4%chance

211693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

48.17%chance

16737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

378

315

Will a mass shooter claim that AI told them to kill people before 2035

Apr 3, 11:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.57%chance

17633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

911

Will Penlink be a toll road?

Oct 24, 11:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

95%chance

5556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

696

52

What will the Iranian death toll of the Iran War be at the end of 2026 according to HRANA?

Apr 4, 8:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6493

OptionProbability

Above 3,000

Above 10,000

Above 20,000

Above 30,000

Above 40,000

Above 50,000

95

43

30

7

5

2

[Metaculus] Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Nov 7, 2:27 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

23.58%chance

8178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

110

What will be the toll for the Francis Scott Key Bridge post repair or replacement? (No EZ Pass)

Mar 26, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6163

OptionProbability

> $5

> $7

> $8

> $6

> $9

> $10

81

66

54

50

38

29

Will "What OpenAI Told California's Attorney General" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.56%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

843

Which company will first publicly demonstrate a fault-tolerant, commercially useful quantum computer?

Jul 3, 1:20 PMJul 10, 12:20 AM

220

OptionProbability

Google

IBM

Quantinuum

PsiQuantum

IonQ

Other

Other

Microsoft

26

11

11

11

11

11

11

9

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