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Prediction markets for TOL

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31274146

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

85

10

2

1

1

0

0

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

6226670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

658

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

65.84%chance

418549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

720

Death toll of Iranian regime killings Jan. 8 and 9, 2026?

Jan 14, 4:49 PMMay 31, 3:00 PM

95987

OptionProbability

16,001+

13,001 - 16,000

11,001 - 13,000

5,0001 - 8,000

8,001 - 11,000

2,001 - 5,000

Below 2,000

62

10

9

7

7

3

1

JRR Tolkien will be canonized by the Catholic Church by 2250

Jul 10, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.88%chance

201683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will a mass shooter claim that AI told them to kill people before 2035

Apr 3, 11:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.57%chance

17633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

911

Will Penlink be a toll road?

Oct 24, 11:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

95%chance

5556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

696

52

[Metaculus] Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Nov 7, 2:27 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

23.58%chance

8178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

110

What will be the toll for the Francis Scott Key Bridge post repair or replacement? (No EZ Pass)

Mar 26, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6163

OptionProbability

> $5

> $7

> $8

> $6

> $9

> $10

81

66

54

50

38

29

Will "What OpenAI Told California's Attorney General" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.56%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

843

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