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Prediction markets for Ton

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Mar 9, 9:51 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

30%chance

6410376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1730

1290

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Mar 9, 9:37 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

287822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

337

Will I aquire over 1 metric ton of Tungsten by 2028?

Jun 10, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.71%chance

141418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2408

415

Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?

Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.07%chance

301229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1172

860

A Musk company brings back at least a metric ton of non-Earth material

Jul 23, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.98%chance

13633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

73

Will 1 ton of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2075?

Apr 5, 6:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.98%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

951

Given that LK-99 is a rt/ap superconductor, will its average market price in 2028 be below $5,000.00 / metric ton?

Aug 6, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.37%chance

9308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

110

Will the US start construction of a surface combatant with standard displacement 25k ton or higher before 2030?

Dec 29, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.82%chance

12271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

435

394

What will CDR (carbon capture) cost per ton at the start of 2030?

Nov 24, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7120

OptionProbability

> $400/ton

$100–$400/ton

< $10/ton

$10–$100/ton

63

16

12

9

Will Heirloom facilities remove 1 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere by 2035?

Nov 23, 7:38 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.22%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

981

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Anthropogenic olivine-based direct air capture of CO2 at >10^9 tons CO2/year before 2050?

Aug 10, 12:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.81%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

83

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