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Prediction markets for Tool

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

433878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

731

Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?

Nov 20, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.91%chance

221749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

616

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

837

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.78%chance

171484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

591

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

848

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.29%chance

331103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

884

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025?

Jan 1, 7:43 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

34.79%chance

15774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

855

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

35.02%chance

11337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMAug 31, 6:40 PM

53.18%chance

6188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

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