Tools for Humanity News

YES

YES

<3 months

4-4.5 months

3.5-4 months

4.5-5 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

40-50%

80-90%

30-40%

≥90%

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

NO

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

NO