Tools for Humanity News

40 - 45%

45 - 50%

35 - 40%

50 - 65%

65 - 100%

70% - 80%

60% - 70%

80% - 90%

90% - 100%

50% - 60%

40% - 50%

75% - 85%

85% - 90%

90% - 100%

70% - 75%

53% - 60%

YES

75% to 85% (30-34 tasks)

87.5% to 97.5% (35-39 tasks)

100% (40 tasks)

62.5% to 72.5% (25-29 tasks)

50% to 60% (20-24 tasks)

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

<0.8

1.4-1.6

YES

YES

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

NO

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

YES