Tools for Humanity News

YES

YES

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

4-4.5 months

<3 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

≥90%

30-40%

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

<155

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

10-20%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

NO

70-80%

60-70%

80-90%

50-60%

40-50%

≥90%

30-40%

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

NO

NO