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Prediction markets for TOP

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

284102461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5722

4808

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.78%chance

13442839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4881

1346

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2315614

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

23

20

17

14

9

5

4

4

3

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2113369

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

38

34

10

7

3

3

3

3

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

189435

OptionProbability

2

3

1

4

0

5

6 - 7

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

24

21

18

11

8

6

5

3

2

1

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Jan 6, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116636

OptionProbability

90-100%

80-90%

100-110%

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

110-120%

>120%

30-40%

40-50%

<20%

20-30%

25

22

15

10

6

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

446268

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

37

33

14

10

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

64.31%chance

524635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1343

695

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

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