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Prediction markets for Top Democrats

Who will be elected leader of Your Party?

Sep 25, 10:45 AMDec 31, 11:40 AM

155988

OptionProbability

Jeremy Corbyn

Zara Sultana

No leader elected by market close

65

31

12

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

535

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20%chance

132932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

192917

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

Jon Ossoff

Andy Beshear

Ruben Gallego

Gretchen Whitmer

Ro Khanna

Wes Moore

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Josh Green

Rahm Emanuel

75

48

38

38

32

27

27

27

24

20

20

16

15

12

10

8

8

5

4

Party Combo of top 2 candidates in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Dec 6, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2446

OptionProbability

2 democrats

1 Democrat and 1 Republican

2 republicans

1 Democrat and 1 Third/Independent

1 Republican and 1 third/independent

2 third/independent

57

39

1

1

1

0

In 2028, will democrats have a major presidential candidate from the centrist wing of the party?

Dec 25, 2:31 PMJun 30, 8:59 PM

61.78%chance

11371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

86

Who will win the 2026 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th congressional district?

Feb 19, 11:36 AMMay 26, 12:00 AM

8291

OptionProbability

Christian Menefee

Al Green

76

24

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

Will there be a new "embarrassing truth" that emerges that governments refuse to acknowledge?

May 1, 12:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

91.78%chance

3150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

56

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

213

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

53

47

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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