Top Win News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Top Win
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30%chance
638825
OptionVotes
1647
341
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
66
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.55%chance
433595
OptionVotes
1634
496
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?
Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM
16.69%chance
81456
OptionVotes
2234
448
Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?
Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.73%chance
251431
OptionVotes
1473
804
Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?
Jun 11, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.1%chance
181358
OptionVotes
1877
533
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.
May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.1%chance
17641
OptionVotes
1294
885
Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?
Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
31.94%chance
13498
OptionVotes
1056
843
Will "New LessWrong review winner UI ("The LeastWro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 4, 11:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
2.44%chance
1400
OptionVotes
520
97
An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question
Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM
40.78%chance
4235
OptionVotes
1205
830
OptionVotes
1194
838
Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.67%chance
2104
OptionVotes
1104
984