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Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6%chance

125234855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4062

893

Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?

Dec 5, 3:12 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

66.63%chance

6819295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1414

708

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

8011179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

1138

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.1%chance

184504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12481

8012

Will Nvidia's market cap exceed 10% of the total S&P 500 market cap by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:44 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

47.64%chance

224128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

957

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?

Sep 29, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.18%chance

17671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

978

Will the total global population exceed 8.5 billion before the end of 2031

Sep 16, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.93%chance

22627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

971

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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