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U.S. Appeals Court Vacates $300 Million Optis Patent Verdict Against Apple, Orders New Trial; Apple Pays $110 Million To TOT

12 days ago

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

1847

1122

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.12%chance

7910829

OptionVotes

YES

4258

871

Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?

Dec 5, 3:12 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

60.31%chance

273089

OptionVotes

YES

1233

811

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

10867

9202

When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country?

Nov 27, 1:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.26%chance

231645

OptionProbability

YES

1010

983

Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?

Sep 29, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.18%chance

17671

OptionVotes

YES

1016

978

Will the total global population exceed 8.5 billion before the end of 2031

Sep 16, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.93%chance

22627

OptionVotes

YES

1052

971

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

1290

481

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM

47%chance

7471

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

Will there be off-Earth habitable volume totalling one cubic kilometre by 2050?

Jan 31, 3:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.73%chance

4259

OptionVotes

YES

1182

846

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

1063

964

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Jul 21, 2025
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U.S. Appeals Court Vacates $300 Million Optis Patent Verdict Against Apple, Orders New Trial; Apple Pays $110 Million To TOT
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Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *total* AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country?

Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?

Will the total global population exceed 8.5 billion before the end of 2031

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Will there be off-Earth habitable volume totalling one cubic kilometre by 2050?

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

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Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?