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Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.59%chance

243409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

843

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

29.81%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will there be a competitive Democratic primary in 2028?

Jul 22, 9:51 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM

80.97%chance

122439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

485

Will Lynas LAMP NdPr oxide production exceed 3500 tonnes NdPr oxide on June 30, 2026?

Mar 20, 2:44 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

25.25%chance

21085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?

Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

151083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

488

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

18640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

876

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

12.51%chance

15567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

828

Will there be a competitive Republican primary in 2028?

Jul 22, 9:56 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM

59.03%chance

9425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending March 2027 exceed 3000 t?

Mar 30, 9:15 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

73.53%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 1500 t?

Mar 30, 9:14 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

76.78%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040?

May 14, 7:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.29%chance

473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

38

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