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Prediction markets for Total Processing

How much will I donate to charity as a result of Manifold bribes?

Jan 26, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

317353

OptionProbability

Above $0

Above $10

Above $50

Above $100

Above $500

Above $1,000

Above $2,000

100

100

100

100

98

70

46

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.59%chance

243409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

843

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

262546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Will there be a competitive Democratic primary in 2028?

Jul 22, 9:51 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM

80.97%chance

122439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

485

Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?

Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

151083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

488

Will Lynas LAMP NdPr oxide production exceed 3500 tonnes NdPr oxide on June 30, 2026?

Mar 20, 2:44 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

21.04%chance

21020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1937

516

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

951

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

18640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

876

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

12.51%chance

15567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

828

Will there be a competitive Republican primary in 2028?

Jul 22, 9:56 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM

59.03%chance

9425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.6%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

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