TOX News

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

Will the Cozumel Thrasher (Toxostoma guttatum) become Extinct by 2100?

Jul 31, 12:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.04%chance

32172

OptionVotes

YES

2670

Manifold toxicity conditional market - EOY 2025

Apr 10, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131415

OptionProbability

Manifold doesn't become toxic && Manifold doesn't get to 10k DAU

Manifold becomes toxic && manifold doesn't get to 10k DAU

Manifold becomes toxic && manifold gets to 10k DAU

Manifold doesn't become toxic && Manifold gets to 10k DAU

Fluoride in water decreases IQ according to 2050 consensus of toxicologists

Feb 14, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 AM

10.48%chance

16837

OptionVotes

YES

292

AI will kill everyone by mandating toxic vaccines

Apr 10, 12:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.89%chance

9232

OptionVotes

YES

352

130

Does Toxoplasma gondii make humans more impulsive/fearless/violent?

Feb 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

6150

OptionVotes

YES

138

126

Will John Carpenter's upcoming video game Toxic Commando get a 75 or above on OpenCritic?

Dec 31, 7:24 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

15.47%chance

3106

OptionVotes

YES

162

Is QALY loss from long-term effects of toxoplasma gondii infections greater than 0.1?

Apr 22, 3:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41%chance

981

OptionVotes

YES

181

161

Has John Carmack lost more than 2 IQ points due to toxins from all the diet coke he has been drinking?

Oct 5, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.06%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

143

119

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

TOX News

Prediction markets for TOX

Prediction markets for TOX

Prediction markets for TOX

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will the Cozumel Thrasher (Toxostoma guttatum) become Extinct by 2100?

Manifold toxicity conditional market - EOY 2025

Fluoride in water decreases IQ according to 2050 consensus of toxicologists

AI will kill everyone by mandating toxic vaccines

Does Toxoplasma gondii make humans more impulsive/fearless/violent?

Will John Carpenter's upcoming video game Toxic Commando get a 75 or above on OpenCritic?

Is QALY loss from long-term effects of toxoplasma gondii infections greater than 0.1?

Has John Carmack lost more than 2 IQ points due to toxins from all the diet coke he has been drinking?

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

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