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Top stories

Kenya Investigates Tourists Blocking Wildebeest Migration at Purungat Gate; TRA Probes, Ministry Vows Stricter Rules

Natural Resources

Kenya Investigates Tourists Blocking Wildebeest Migration at Purungat Gate; TRA Probes, Ministry Vows Stricter Rules

Authors

4

3 days ago

Prediction markets for TRA

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.05%chance

34302736501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12813

7642

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer?

May 27, 10:51 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

1%chance

47167059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147833

4738

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

42.24%chance

1510410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7368

4747

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

49.01%chance

2370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10200

9804

When will kalomaze transition?

Jul 9, 2:55 AMJan 1, 3:49 AM

00

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

Who will win the 2025 UK celebrity traitors series

Jun 23, 9:44 AMOct 31, 12:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Tameka Empson

Tom Daley

Alan Carr

Cat Burns

Celia Imrie

Charlotte Church

Clare Balding

David Olusoga

Joe Marler

Joe Wilkinson

Jonathan Ross

Kate Garraway

Lucy Beaumont

Mark Bonnar

Nick Mohammed

Niko Omilana

Paloma Faith

Ruth Codd

Stephen Fry

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Which country will next change its traffic handedness after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Myanmar

Thailand

Papua New Guinea

50

50

50

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