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Prediction markets for Trade and Manufacturing

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

4724080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will a Google Play alternative make at least 1b in annual revenue in 2026?

Oct 8, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.39%chance

102449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3304

303

Will China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?

Aug 17, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.66%chance

91625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

820

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

When will the first Chinese branded EV be sold in the United States?

Aug 5, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8181

OptionProbability

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

After 2032

Before 2028

Before 2027

87

76

72

41

34

17

13

Should NZ start making its own medicines due to the possibility of being one of the last remaining countries?

Sep 11, 8:41 AM

100

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