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Top stories

Rubio Meets Canada’s Anand in Washington as Trade Strains Mount

US Foreign Policy

Rubio Meets Canada’s Anand in Washington as Trade Strains Mount

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Trade

Will Bitcoin trade above $400k before it falls below $40k?

Dec 25, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.81%chance

6256325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

385

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

12.51%chance

9426357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

33.1%chance

2023662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8847

3856

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.2%chance

153907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

1289

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

Mar 26, 12:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.91%chance

312709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

224

Will Polymarket reach $100B in trading volume in 2027?

Aug 16, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.06%chance

122041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.53%chance

24972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

677

Who is the best Manifold user? (forecasting skill, fun and nice, insider trading)

Jan 30, 12:24 PMMar 1, 12:19 PM

8836

OptionProbability

Other

@Tumbles

@Eliza

@Robincvgr

@Joshua

@Bayesian

@IsaacKing

@SemioticRivalry

@ziddletwix

@bens

37

12

12

9

7

6

6

4

4

3

I will pay everyone who trades on this market 10 mana

Aug 25, 4:02 AMJul 21, 5:59 AM

68.57%chance

91747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

981

Will Bitcoin trade above $1M before it falls below $10k?

Feb 1, 1:22 AMJan 1, 1:20 AM

51.05%chance

563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

979

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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