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Top stories

Rubio Meets Canada’s Anand in Washington as Trade Strains Mount

US Foreign Policy

Rubio Meets Canada’s Anand in Washington as Trade Strains Mount

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Trade

Will Bitcoin trade above $400k before it falls below $40k?

Dec 25, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48%chance

5848680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1272

445

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

31.39%chance

1714321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9178

3699

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Jan 8, 8:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

436002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

62

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.2%chance

153907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

1289

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

Mar 26, 12:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.29%chance

292409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

281

Will Manifold Introduce an Incentive for Trading on Markets with Few Traders? (Proposal in Description)?

Mar 5, 4:49 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

122127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

53

Will Polymarket reach $100B in trading volume in 2027?

Aug 16, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.53%chance

24972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

677

I will pay everyone who trades on this market 10 mana

Aug 25, 4:02 AMJul 21, 5:59 AM

68.56%chance

90745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

980

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.15%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

994

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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