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Prediction markets for Trading Bots

Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?

Oct 15, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.7%chance

695136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

952

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.47%chance

494561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

766

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?

Oct 4, 10:49 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

95%chance

193985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2961

775

Which Manifold trading bot will win the most Silicon league seasons in 2026?

Jan 1, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91635

OptionProbability

@Dagonet

@bayesianbot

@Merchant

Other

@NiciusBot

@a (chooterbot)

25

24

24

18

4

4

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2030?

Oct 4, 10:51 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

61.63%chance

27946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

944

Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?

Oct 30, 6:48 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

65.94%chance

11805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

160

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028?

Oct 4, 10:50 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

80.33%chance

19620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

885

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2029?

Oct 4, 10:50 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

78.77%chance

15554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

864

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?

Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM

21.05%chance

11351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

915

Are sterile neutrinos realized in nature?

Aug 30, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.3%chance

13188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

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