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Prediction markets for Trading Standards

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Sep 11, 10:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.83%chance

219394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5857

171

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.63%chance

317489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

829

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

127410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

It is possible to write standard C++ with memory safety guarantees similar to Rust by the end of

Sep 15, 6:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

185190

OptionProbability

2037

2033

2030

2027

17

13

9

1

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.31%chance

663836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

915

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026

Jan 3, 5:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.4%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

692

145

Is our place special in the Universe?

Sep 25, 10:59 PMSep 25, 10:38 PM

51%chance

4470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

61.16%chance

8126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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