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Prediction markets for Trading Standards

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4.16%chance

8478282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49016

2323

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

1710146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14867

6726

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Sep 11, 10:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.83%chance

219394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5857

171

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.31%chance

296967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

It is possible to write standard C++ with memory safety guarantees similar to Rust by the end of

Sep 15, 6:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

184890

OptionProbability

2037

2033

2030

2027

24

17

12

1

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.67%chance

643801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

880

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Dec 11, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.65%chance

292358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2322

431

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Is our place special in the Universe?

Sep 25, 10:59 PMSep 25, 10:38 PM

51%chance

4470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

If I take the GMAT Focus in the next year, what will I score?

Apr 23, 9:08 PMApr 23, 9:04 PM

6249

OptionProbability

755-775 (93-96th percentile)

725-745 (83-91st percentile)

785-795 (98th percentile)

805 (Perfect score)

<725 (<83rd percenitle)

46

22

21

10

6

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

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