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Prediction markets for Trading Standards

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Sep 11, 10:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.83%chance

219394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5857

171

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.64%chance

359309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1482

677

Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026

Apr 22, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

418013

OptionProbability

≥$0.8T

≥$0.9T

≥$1T

≥$1.5T

≥$2T

≥$2.5T

≥$3T

≥$4T

≥$5T

≥$7.5T

100

100

93

84

57

38

25

13

8

4

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.44%chance

147890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2027

May 21, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

185162

OptionProbability

≥$2T

≥$2.5T

≥$3T

≥$4T

≥$5T

≥$7.5T

≥$10T

≥$15T

≥$20T

100

100

68

38

22

8

7

4

3

Will an AI be able to keep us laughing out loud by 2028?

Nov 5, 12:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.31%chance

663836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

915

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Is our place special in the Universe?

Sep 25, 10:59 PMSep 25, 10:38 PM

51%chance

4470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

4408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

769

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

67.91%chance

8146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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