TRAI News

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

90079

6480

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

25635779

OptionVotes

YES

2187

1991

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9023654

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Google

Intel

Other

Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?

Oct 17, 5:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

5312479

OptionVotes

YES

3141

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1305

Trainwreckstv stock (Permanent)

Nov 4, 5:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

956415

OptionProbability

YES

1825

1627

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

28.1%chance

475154

OptionVotes

YES

1699

337

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

1337

880

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

1657

1487

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

20%chance

142115

OptionVotes

YES

3000

1500

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

1071

970

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Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Trainwreckstv stock (Permanent)

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

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