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Prediction markets for TRAI

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

29.23%chance

15673728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

545

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

6062532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

56934

7037

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.78%chance

7553121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46557

2925

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.84%chance

25034655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2610

1919

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8719354

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

Other

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

67

11

6

6

5

3

3

Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?

Oct 17, 5:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

5312479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3141

51

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.56%chance

498601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2322

546

Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

12.36%chance

676653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

1096

Trainwreckstv stock (Permanent)

Nov 4, 5:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

956415

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1825

1627

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.62%chance

101749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3048

1488

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

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