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Prediction markets for TRAI

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

36.12%chance

15173304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2118

667

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

3.36%chance

5944351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38965

7534

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.39%chance

24534485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2862

1836

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7816538

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Other

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Google

Intel

64

15

6

5

5

3

2

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Dec 13, 1:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.03%chance

4214355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3608

700

Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

12.36%chance

676653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

1096

Trainwreckstv stock (Permanent)

Nov 4, 5:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

956415

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1825

1627

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

466093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

682

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

18.99%chance

91729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3131

1468

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

Who will win the 2025 UK celebrity traitors series

Jun 23, 9:44 AMOct 31, 12:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Tameka Empson

Tom Daley

Alan Carr

Cat Burns

Celia Imrie

Charlotte Church

Clare Balding

David Olusoga

Joe Marler

Joe Wilkinson

Jonathan Ross

Kate Garraway

Lucy Beaumont

Mark Bonnar

Nick Mohammed

Niko Omilana

Paloma Faith

Ruth Codd

Stephen Fry

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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