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Prediction markets for TRAI

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90079

6480

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2105

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8923604

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

Other

70

11

6

5

3

3

3

Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?

Oct 17, 5:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

5312479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3141

51

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

Trainwreckstv stock (Permanent)

Nov 4, 5:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

956415

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1825

1627

Trainwreckstv Stock (Permanent)

Mar 24, 12:18 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

324758

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1983

984

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)

Apr 8, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

252543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

609

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

1487

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

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