Transparency International News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

57414

10596

Will the US be perceived as more corrupt in 2026 than 2025?

Feb 21, 5:47 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

84.35%chance

202476

OptionVotes

YES

2322

431

Putin die when?

Jul 23, 8:54 AMJul 24, 8:52 AM

141264

OptionProbability

2035

2034

2030

2031

2029

2032

2033

2028

2027

2026

2025

China's nominal GDP exceeds EU's in 2027?

Apr 20, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.36%chance

12840

OptionVotes

YES

1013

987

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

1386

804

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

149

Transparency International News

Prediction markets for Transparency International

Prediction markets for Transparency International

Prediction markets for Transparency International

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will the US be perceived as more corrupt in 2026 than 2025?

Putin die when?

China's nominal GDP exceeds EU's in 2027?

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

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