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Prediction markets for Transparency International

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will the US be perceived as more corrupt in 2026 than 2025?

Feb 21, 5:47 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

222731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2577

388

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

152279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2956

338

Putin die when?

Jul 23, 8:54 AMJul 24, 8:52 AM

201883

OptionProbability

2035

2034

2029

2028

2026

2027

2033

2030

2031

2032

2025

47

10

9

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

1

China's nominal GDP exceeds EU's in 2027?

Apr 20, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.36%chance

12840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

918

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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