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Top stories

Trump Blocks Venezuelan Oil Permits for Non-US Majors, Spares Chevron

US Foreign Policy

Trump Blocks Venezuelan Oil Permits for Non-US Majors, Spares Chevron

Authors

10

9 months ago

Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender Leaving Trump Administration After Clashes With IRS Chief and Trump

US Gov Appointments

Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender Leaving Trump Administration After Clashes With IRS Chief and Trump

Authors

29

9 months ago

Trump Floats Tariff-Funded Dividend Checks for Americans

US Domestic Policy

Trump Floats Tariff-Funded Dividend Checks for Americans

Authors

13

8 months ago

US Mortgage Applications Slide; Treasury Sells $16 Bln 20-Year Bonds at 4.876%

Authors

11

9 months ago

Orsted Plans $9.4 Billion Rights Issue as Shares Plunge Nearly 30%, Hit Lowest Since 2016 IPO Amid U.S. Setbacks and S&P Downgrade

Authors

29

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Treasury Department

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

3.19%chance

3710890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5508

182

US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?

Aug 23, 12:09 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5.04%chance

168052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4379

232

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497028

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

37

32

14

12

10

8

Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?

Feb 11, 6:35 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

28.72%chance

224761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

635

$250 bill with Trump's face before 2028?

Oct 9, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.91%chance

303721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2597

385

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

11.61%chance

152497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2759

362

Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in?

Oct 13, 12:01 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

112134

OptionProbability

USA Rare Earth

ExxonMobile

Chevron

Sunoco

GlobalFoundries

Boeing

Ford

Palantir

Tesla

AMD

United Health

Moderna

55

50

50

50

35

29

17

17

15

15

12

8

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

18409

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

48

16

10

Will the US government distribute free cryptocurrency to citizens before January 20, 2029?

Feb 20, 7:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.11%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

38%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

528

478

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