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Prediction markets for Treasury officials

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset in 2025?

Jul 22, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.89%chance

5819002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2142

467

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

3110561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

1984

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

4.32%chance

3710090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4708

212

Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?

Feb 11, 6:35 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

9.95%chance

194144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3008

332

What will be the total value of the US national strategic crypto reserve on January 1, 2026?

Mar 3, 2:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

183089

OptionProbability

$0 (or does not exist)

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

>$0, less than $1 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Between $100 billion and $500 billion

Greater than $1 trillion

Between $500 billion and $1 trillion

47

22

11

10

5

3

2

1

New country buys Bitcoin in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.99%chance

151645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

As of January 1, 2026, will the following assets be held in a US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201361

OptionProbability

Bitcoin (BTC)

Tether (USDT)

Cardano (ADA)

XRP

Ethereum (ETH)

Solana (SOL)

Dogecoin (DOGE)

91

65

59

47

40

34

28

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

25.48%chance

81348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

585

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

16366

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

53

12

12

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.64%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

862

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

39.72%chance

477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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