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Prediction markets for Treasury officials

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset in 2025?

Jul 22, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.33%chance

5821796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6475

154

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

3110561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

1984

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

4.23%chance

3710140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4758

210

New country buys Bitcoin in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.71%chance

288321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

466318

OptionProbability

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

Other (10m+ deaths)

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

29

29

27

8

8

7

4

Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?

Feb 11, 6:35 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

11.82%chance

204415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2731

366

$250 bill with Trump's face before 2028?

Oct 9, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

292711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

24.4%chance

91398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

As of January 1, 2026, will the following assets be held in a US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221388

OptionProbability

Bitcoin (BTC)

Tether (USDT)

XRP

Ethereum (ETH)

Solana (SOL)

Cardano (ADA)

Dogecoin (DOGE)

91

65

47

40

34

30

28

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57%chance

12518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.64%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

862

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