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Treat News

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

89.45%chance

159141024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4067

903

Will it be confirmed by the Trump Administration before June 30, 2026 that Donald Trump has been treated for Alzheimer’?

Dec 7, 11:48 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

2.24%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

661

15

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2026?

Apr 4, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.24%chance

16931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1618

846

Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?

May 17, 8:19 AMMay 25, 9:59 PM

15.48%chance

25858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

968

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2027?

Apr 3, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.68%chance

22804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

763

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2028?

Apr 4, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.85%chance

21399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

877

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.53%chance

14263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

952

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.95%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will the US FDA approve topical finasteride to treat male pattern baldness by 2034?

Sep 16, 11:59 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

121

Will "Intention to Treat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 1:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.41%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

993

Will kTMP (kilohertz Transcranial Magnetic Perturbation) be shown to have higher effectiveness in treating ADHD than TMS

Aug 4, 10:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.74%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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