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Treat News

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2026?

Apr 4, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.53%chance

161681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2368

757

Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?

May 17, 8:19 AMMay 25, 9:59 PM

11.22%chance

261217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

948

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2027?

Apr 3, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.58%chance

23934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

893

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2028?

Apr 4, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.36%chance

22409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

867

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.53%chance

14263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

952

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.2%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will the US FDA approve topical finasteride to treat male pattern baldness by 2034?

Sep 16, 11:59 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

121

Will "Intention to Treat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 1:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.41%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

993

Will kTMP (kilohertz Transcranial Magnetic Perturbation) be shown to have higher effectiveness in treating ADHD than TMS

Aug 4, 10:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.74%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Is Vidalista 40mg safe for treating erectile dysfunction?

Feb 10, 7:17 AMDec 31, 7:16 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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