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Prediction markets for TREE

Oliver Tree is still alive

Jun 18, 11:03 PMJun 19, 11:02 PM

3.57%chance

75794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5196

192

Which generation of LLM's will be able to invert a modified perfect binary tree (as modified by Taelin)?

Oct 12, 1:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7557

OptionProbability

GPT-8 era

GPT-5 era

GPT-7 era

GPT-6 era

GPT-4 era

GPT-3 era

74

72

65

63

59

26

Will tree cover in the United States increase between EOY 2023 and 2030?

Jan 1, 5:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.8%chance

9271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

273

130

Oliver Tree cause of death

Jul 7, 5:15 AMJan 1, 6:13 AM

6174

OptionProbability

Accident

Other

Murder by Atlantic Records

82

12

7

Bioluminescent tree lighting before 2030?

Oct 25, 7:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.79%chance

8159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

126

Will elephants be able to chop down trees in AOE2 by 2030?

Oct 28, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.98%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will "Trees are mostly made of air and a generaliza..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 30, 6:11 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will the wild population of the Azure-thighed Tree Frog (Litoria azuroscelis) become extinct by 2100?

Apr 5, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.98%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

530

469

Will total US tree cover loss (in Mha) be higher in 2026 than 2024?

Nov 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will total US tree cover loss (in Mha) be higher during Trump's second term (2025-2028) than during Biden's term?

Nov 11, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.38%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Will Jose Luis ricon and Alexey guzey both go sitting on a tree together??

Jul 27, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Peter Wohlleben (behind “The Hidden Life of Trees) try Ayahuasca

Jun 10, 5:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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