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Prediction markets for Trend Research

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

19.29%chance

555029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

243

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.03%chance

394067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

750

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17%chance

263760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will Midjourney lose at least 50% of their userbase in 5 years?

Feb 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.68%chance

171131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

791

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Which types of AI risks will see a growth in global attention by the end of June 2026, according to AI-seismograph.com?

Apr 10, 2:23 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7485

OptionProbability

Job loss

X-risks

Disinformation

Privacy erosion

Accidents

Warfare

Human meaning

Runaway science

Democracy harms

Inequality

62

57

52

52

50

50

47

45

44

44

When will life expectancy for males in the USA reach 100?

May 28, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4391

OptionProbability

2025–2083

2084–2142

2143–2200

2201 or later

75

16

4

4

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

8144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

43%chance

8138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

145

Average senator age in Jan 2029

Dec 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

330

OptionProbability

65 to <67 years old

63 to <65 years old

67 years old or more

Less than 63 years old

31

30

22

17

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