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Prediction markets for Trend Research

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

3.84%chance

8728473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

758

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

7.38%chance

392567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

820

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

56.73%chance

441748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

752

Will Democrats win big in 2024? || Will "downfall of America will really speed up" during 2024-2028?

Sep 1, 6:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

111691

OptionProbability

Democrats no || downfall no

Democrats no || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall no

52

46

1

1

Will Midjourney lose at least 50% of their userbase in 5 years?

Feb 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.68%chance

171131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

791

Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?

May 8, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.04%chance

16660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

42.38%chance

10462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

When will life expectancy for males in the USA reach 100?

May 28, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4391

OptionProbability

2025–2083

2084–2142

2143–2200

2201 or later

75

16

4

4

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Will the average estimation of carbon offsets from U.S. forests fall below 10% of emissions by 2028?

Aug 5, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.12%chance

524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

485

484

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