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Prediction markets for Trend Research

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.03%chance

394067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

750

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

38.29%chance

462486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

458

Will Democrats win big in 2024? || Will "downfall of America will really speed up" during 2024-2028?

Sep 1, 6:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

111691

OptionProbability

Democrats no || downfall no

Democrats no || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall no

52

46

1

1

Will Midjourney lose at least 50% of their userbase in 5 years?

Feb 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.68%chance

171131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

791

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

82.14%chance

17852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

33.18%chance

660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

127

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2027?

Feb 19, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Average senator age in Jan 2029

Dec 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

220

OptionProbability

63 to <65 years old

65 to <67 years old

67 years old or more

Less than 63 years old

28

28

28

16

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