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Prediction markets for Trend Research

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.03%chance

394067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

750

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

38.29%chance

462486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

458

How many times will #QuantumComputing trend on X globally within the next 30 days?

Jan 27, 2:23 AMFeb 28, 2:13 AM

101315

OptionProbability

C) 2

A) 0

B) 1

D) 3

E) 4+

28

24

23

16

9

Will Midjourney lose at least 50% of their userbase in 5 years?

Feb 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.68%chance

171131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

791

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.55%chance

18652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

52.8%chance

12482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64%chance

6117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

33.18%chance

660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

127

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