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Prediction markets for Trend Research

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

19.29%chance

555029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

243

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.03%chance

394067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

750

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will Midjourney lose at least 50% of their userbase in 5 years?

Feb 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.68%chance

171131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

791

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Which types of AI risks will see a growth in global attention by the end of June 2026, according to AI-seismograph.com?

Apr 10, 2:23 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8520

OptionProbability

Job loss

X-risks

Disinformation

Privacy erosion

Warfare

Accidents

Human meaning

Runaway science

Democracy harms

Inequality

62

57

52

52

52

50

47

45

44

44

When will life expectancy for males in the USA reach 100?

May 28, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4391

OptionProbability

2025–2083

2084–2142

2143–2200

2201 or later

75

16

4

4

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

43%chance

8138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

145

Will 100 million quadruped robots be manufactured before 2034?

May 21, 1:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the average estimation of carbon offsets from U.S. forests fall below 10% of emissions by 2028?

Aug 5, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.12%chance

524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

485

484

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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