Tribe News

Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025

Nov 25, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.16%chance

52460

OptionVotes

YES

3365

300

What will appear in Survivor 50 (that were featured in the fan vote)?

Feb 25, 9:23 AMJul 4, 3:59 PM

61480

OptionProbability

Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)

Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)

Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)

Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)

Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)

Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)

Advantages: Dynamic Power

Advantages: Minimal Power

Advantages: Strategic Power

Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)

Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)

Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)

Will Manifold be taken over by any other ideological group before 2028?

Nov 3, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.68%chance

22428

OptionVotes

YES

282

129

Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025

Jan 10, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.34%chance

4425

OptionVotes

YES

1143

875

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

33.47%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

2420

1704

What will be the first eukaryote to be de-extincted?

Feb 11, 1:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11228

OptionProbability

Passenger pigeon

Other

Thylacine

Dodo

Aurochs

Rapa Nui palm

Iberian ibex

Quagga

Christmas Island rat

Wooly mammoth

Xerces blue

Elephant bird

Avatar: Fire and Ash earns more than $373M in USA box office by December 31, 2025

Oct 13, 8:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.15%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

125

US tribe uses "Genetic reclamation" to increase their blood quantum before 2046

May 27, 9:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35.64%chance

631

OptionVotes

YES

158

110

What will be the next Imperator: Rome tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with?

May 10, 8:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Other

Rome

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

Sep 26, 2:19 AM

Will Ethan Caballero get a LOSS FUNCTION named after him? (the "Caballero loss function")

Sep 26, 2:42 AM

Tribe News

Prediction markets for Tribe

Prediction markets for Tribe

Prediction markets for Tribe

Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025

What will appear in Survivor 50 (that were featured in the fan vote)?

Will Manifold be taken over by any other ideological group before 2028?

Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

What will be the first eukaryote to be de-extincted?

Avatar: Fire and Ash earns more than $373M in USA box office by December 31, 2025

US tribe uses "Genetic reclamation" to increase their blood quantum before 2046

What will be the next Imperator: Rome tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with?

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

Will Ethan Caballero get a LOSS FUNCTION named after him? (the "Caballero loss function")

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