True Markets News

Robert Prevost / Pope Leo XIV

[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Benjamin Netanyahu

Zohran Mamdani

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Vladimir Putin

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

Imane Khelif is intersex

The Jews control at least one nation's government

The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

DHMO in the water supply

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Santa is rigged

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

√-1 isn't real

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

Groundhog Day is rigged

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

Dead Internet theory

John McAfee didn't kill himself

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Annie Altman's abuse claims

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

The CIA killed JFK

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

Human didnt evolve from apes

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

Gamergate was right

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

China made covid 19 in a lab

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

Sue Gray was a spy

Harold Holt murdered

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

A cure for cancer has already been found

Princess Diana was assassinated

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

The NFL is rigged

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

Ogopogo is real

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Israel killed JFK

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

Exercise is bad for your health

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

QR codes are satanic

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

Bush did 9/11

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

QAnon

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Rationalussy isn't real.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

US government is harboring aliens

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

China was not genociding Uyghurs

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The illuminati runs the world

*All* health care is net negative for health

The moon landing was fake

Birds aren't real

climate change isn't human caused

Michelle Obama is a man

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

Brazilian money is not real

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

Yeti is real or similar creature

The earth is a dodecahedron

Climate change isn’t real

Skibidi Toilet is real

Q is Putin

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

End of the world in 2012

Earth is hollow

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Flossing is bad for your health

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

YES

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

YES

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

Has eye tracking

Has external battery

Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

Has built in speakers for audio

Will have a glass front

Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

Priced under $2,000

Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

Has "Air" in its name

Primarily made of aluminum

Has an external display (like eyesight)

Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

Priced under $1000

Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

Priced lower than $199

Priced lower than $299

Singularity

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available

At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each

A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available

A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6

Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000

YES

Went to an Ivy League school

Once confirmed, will be the 9th member of the court

Replacing a live, retired Justice

Older than 50

Nominated by a Republican President

Male

White

Has children

The resolution will depend on the interpretation of a single word