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Top stories

Ethics Office Warns Treasury Secretary Bessent Over Divestment Lapses

US Gov Appointments

Ethics Office Warns Treasury Secretary Bessent Over Divestment Lapses

Authors

5

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Trump Cabinet

Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.21%chance

16626678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

990

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

12.63%chance

2017738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26303

3802

If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025?

Jan 21, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.92%chance

8412237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1786

44

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

547116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Will a member of the Trump cabinet be appointed through a recess appointment in 2025?

Nov 14, 3:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.09%chance

133562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2577

388

Will at least 33% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.79%chance

221831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

816

If Trump wins in 2024, will any members of his Cabinet be former Trump administration Cabinet members?

Mar 13, 6:06 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

19.1%chance

121623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2497

499

Will at least 25% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.6%chance

191520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1790

705

Will David Sacks hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position (including “acting” ) in Donald Trump's administration during 2025?

Jul 7, 1:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.64%chance

61400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

572

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

77.12%chance

201243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

868

Will Donald Trump pardon any of his cabinet members from his second term?

Nov 14, 3:48 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

42.17%chance

1271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

854

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