Trump Trade News

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

23.04%chance

8122160

OptionVotes

YES

1828

547

Will Trump halve the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 25, 1:38 AMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

2.85%chance

256011

OptionVotes

YES

5841

171

Will there be evidence of insider trading by any Trump administration official for the events of April 9th.

Apr 10, 3:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

312034

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will the resolution of "Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?" be controversial?

Apr 14, 4:10 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

88.17%chance

9282

OptionVotes

YES

273

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

May 6, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:09 PM

5275

OptionProbability

New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)

Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)

Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo

New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

Other

Are Trump’s Tariffs part of a strategy to restructure the US Debt, Dollar, Trade & Global Financial System? 🇺🇸🏛️🤑

Apr 4, 11:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

34.66%chance

8236

OptionVotes

YES

137

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

Apr 13, 5:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15228

OptionProbability

Trump understands some aspects but misunderstands the broader economic consequences

No, Trump is acting impulsively without understanding the economic implications

Trump is following advisors' strategies rather than his own understanding

Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty as a negotiation tactic

Yes

Yes, Trump has a clear strategy and understanding of his trade war goals

Trump understands the political benefits but not the economic impacts

Trump's understanding is evolving as the trade war progresses

Other

Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term

Mar 15, 1:42 AMNov 5, 3:59 AM

53.74%chance

4220

OptionVotes

YES

108

Tangible evidence of senior Trump officials trading on insider tariff info before 2030?

Apr 9, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.55%chance

10180

OptionVotes

YES

138

Trump administration signs major new trade deal by August 27, 2025?

May 30, 12:15 AMAug 26, 11:59 PM

83.78%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

227

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Jul 11, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.3%chance

11132

OptionVotes

YES

138

Peter Retarrdo not trade advisor to Trump by end of 2025?

Apr 8, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.46%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

105

Trump Trade News

Prediction markets for Trump Trade

Prediction markets for Trump Trade

Prediction markets for Trump Trade

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Will Trump halve the trade deficit in his first year?

Will there be evidence of insider trading by any Trump administration official for the events of April 9th.

Will the resolution of "Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?" be controversial?

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

Are Trump’s Tariffs part of a strategy to restructure the US Debt, Dollar, Trade & Global Financial System? 🇺🇸🏛️🤑

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term

Tangible evidence of senior Trump officials trading on insider tariff info before 2030?

Trump administration signs major new trade deal by August 27, 2025?

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Peter Retarrdo not trade advisor to Trump by end of 2025?

Latest stories