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Prediction markets for Trusted Volumes

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Jun 30, 1:32 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6.09%chance

316087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

255

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2440

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

69

61

52

39

34

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

Aug 3, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.9%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

53

How many internship interviews will I receive by 5/30/2027

Jul 24, 2:14 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

391

OptionProbability

5 - 6

7 - 9

0 (Tears of Sorrow)

3 - 4

10 - 14

20+ (Tears of Joy)

1 - 2

15 - 19

14

14

12

12

12

12

11

11

Will a top 5 US fast-food chain launch a non-dairy milkshake nationally by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.3%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will Manifold Market be mentioned by an American Politician?

Jul 8, 2:49 PMJan 2, 3:43 PM

54.24%chance

864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will any Green Bay Packers wide receiver surpass 777 receiving yards in the 2026 NFL season?

Jun 26, 3:50 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

54.2%chance

341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

86

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Jul 9, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.64%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

89

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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