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Prediction markets for Trusted Volumes

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3475

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

69

61

52

39

29

Will there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi?

Sep 9, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.78%chance

10217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will a top 5 US fast-food chain launch a non-dairy milkshake nationally by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.19%chance

4183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Trump "Salt the Earth" in his last two years?

Nov 4, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.87%chance

9179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

Will the Trump suspension of Tariffs on ground beef be fully implemented and last the announce 90 day time period

Aug 24, 10:05 PMNov 22, 10:05 PM

84.44%chance

7152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

78

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

Aug 3, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.9%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

53

How many internship interviews will I receive by 5/30/2027

Jul 24, 2:14 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

391

OptionProbability

5 - 6

7 - 9

0 (Tears of Sorrow)

3 - 4

10 - 14

20+ (Tears of Joy)

1 - 2

15 - 19

14

14

12

12

12

12

11

11

Will Manifold Market be mentioned by an American Politician?

Jul 8, 2:49 PMJan 2, 3:43 PM

54.24%chance

864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Jul 9, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.64%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

89

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

Will I reach top 50 by volume on Manifold by EOY 2026?

Nov 5, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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