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Prediction markets for Truth

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9435409

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Copenhagen

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

46

32

7

6

4

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

14.04%chance

175823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2475

404

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.6%chance

213541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

942

Will Truth Social still be operating when Trump dies?

Mar 14, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.1%chance

253184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2755

241

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

Jan 18, 11:08 AMJan 25, 3:59 PM

112026

OptionProbability

Misinformation

Deliberate Falsehood

Reverse Engineering of Human-Origin Craft

Reverse Engineering by Non-U.S. Entities

100% true

Existence of Non-Human Craft, Not Reverse Engineered

Non-Functional Non-Human Craft

Fragments of Non-Human Craft

87

48

8

8

1

1

1

1

Will Truth Social $DJT still be a publicly listed stock at the end of 2026?

May 3, 4:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.22%chance

141418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

742

13

Will "The truth behind the 2026 J.P. Morgan Healthc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 25, 9:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.89%chance

51019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

895

Which company will acquire Truth Social by the end of 2026?

Aug 12, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14331

OptionProbability

No acquisition

Twitter / X

Other

Gab

Rumble

Meta / Facebook

90

3

3

2

2

1

Will Truth Social still be operating 3 years after Trump dies?

Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.91%chance

13323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

235

Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?

Mar 14, 4:37 PMMar 22, 3:59 AM

41.45%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

989

Is asking a truthful superintelligence for a PROB the best way to resolve ambiguous markets?

Apr 18, 1:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.09%chance

4158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

98

52

Will "Truth or Dare" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 30, 12:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.61%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

958

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