OptionProbability
I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026
I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection
I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO
I qualify for TST 2026-2027
I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026
I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026
I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026
I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026
I qualify for RMM 2026
I qualify for IMO 2026
100
90
49
30
26
10
0
mop 2025
usamo gold 2025
tst 2026
a partner before an award on the usamo (not including 2025 usamo) (yes this is a reference to david and hannah and you admit's markets)
imo 2026 (yes arbitrage on https://manifold.markets/JiaheLiu/will-i-make-imo-ever)
black mop 2025
rmm 2026
1
Silver
Gold
Bronze
HM
No award
No qualification
48
36
13
Jenover Viano Yoshield
Other
Winston Christian Gani
Neilson Huang
Janssen Samuel Halim
Hansen Marcello Chandra
Brandon Ferdinand Gunawan
Ketut Andra Nugraha Utama
Kenzie Al Hassan Satria
[Withdrew] Danica Odelia
21
20
14
7
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
128
78
1006
987
not qualify :(
56
25
4