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Prediction markets for Turing

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10681116329

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2028-2029

2037-2038

2038-2039

2049-2050

2039-2040

2040-2041

2027-2028

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2026-2027

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

9

9

8

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.04%chance

967737048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10126

9776

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.54%chance

5427446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

771

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

937

Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?

May 17, 10:20 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

67.82%chance

274574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1452

689

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

Oct 17, 1:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

67.67%chance

223791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

961

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Mar 19, 8:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.15%chance

171222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

902

Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?

Jul 11, 8:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

78.58%chance

20987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

710

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

777

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Feb 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.98%chance

29524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

907

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

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