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Prediction markets for Turing

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10631090689

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2028-2029

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2027-2028

2039-2040

2040-2041

2026-2027

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

12

10

9

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.96%chance

958695792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9982

9903

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.54%chance

5427446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

771

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

937

Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?

May 17, 10:20 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

67.82%chance

274574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1452

689

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.75%chance

174167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1767

566

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

Oct 17, 1:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

67.67%chance

223791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

961

Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?

Feb 20, 11:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.44%chance

482266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

435

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

777

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Feb 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.98%chance

29524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

907

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

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