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Prediction markets for Turning Point

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.54%chance

561564583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10380

579

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

31.26%chance

669220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.21%chance

425408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

940

Will Elon Musk imply before 2026 that NASA didn't land on the moon?

Sep 23, 5:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.08%chance

204935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4322

231

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

82738

OptionProbability

July 1 2028

July 1 2029

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

August 1 2025

July 1 2026

May 1 2026

March 1 2026

Jan 1 2026

Dec 1 2025

Sep 1 2025

July 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

55

55

50

50

50

50

50

48

45

37

21

19

18

0

0

0

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?

Feb 12, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

241204

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

<2028

<2027

<2026

<2025

88

76

62

58

48

32

5

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

52.8%chance

5435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

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