OptionProbability
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
Other (10m+ deaths)
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
Worldwide Pandemic
29
27
8
7
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1009
979
By 2030
By 2027
77
44
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
41
40
