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Prediction markets for Twelve

Which public figures will outlive @Orangey?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

195373

OptionProbability

Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump

Jordan Peterson

Mitch McConnell

Buzz Aldrin

Clint Eastwood

Joe Biden

David Attenborough

Noam Chomsky

Jimmy Carter

93

91

88

85

84

82

80

48

31

0

Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

11.68%chance

11750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2750

364

Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

14.28%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2450

408

Who will win the 2026-2027 FIDE Circuit?

Mar 2, 3:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91180

OptionProbability

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Javokhir Sindarov

Fabiano Caruana

Vincent Keymer

Anish Giri

R Praggnanandhaa

Arjun Erigaisi

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Other

Magnus Carlsen

Wesley So

Gukesh D

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus

Jorden van Foreest

Hans Niemann

Alireza Firouzja

Wei Yi

Matthias Bluebaum

Andrey Esipenko

Hikaru Nakamura

15

14

13

7

6

5

5

5

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

23.11%chance

2835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

548

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMFeb 26, 7:59 AM

5611

OptionProbability

20-29k

30-39k

10-19k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

>89k

80-89k

<10k

22

21

11

8

8

8

8

8

5

3

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.21%chance

6589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

909

Photo or video of any of twelve famous Americans playing pickleball through 2027

Sep 12, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.72%chance

14566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

848

Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?

Feb 13, 9:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.06%chance

15486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

966

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:03 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

107

If the Riemann hypothesis is false, how many counterexamples does it have?

May 27, 12:35 PMDec 31, 8:55 AM

3128

OptionProbability

Countably infinitely many

Uncountably many

More than twelve, but finitely many

Twelve

Four

Eight

28

25

20

10

9

8

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