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Prediction markets for Twelve

Which will happen first: first woman US President 👸or US gets into a new hot war 💥🪖?

Feb 22, 6:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15514132

OptionProbability

US war

Woman President

91

9

Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 35 kilotonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:06 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM

13.84%chance

21501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2495

401

Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

14.28%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2450

408

Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on May 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:06 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM

15.33%chance

11350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2350

426

Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

23.11%chance

2835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

548

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

6569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Photo or video of any of twelve famous Americans playing pickleball through 2027

Sep 12, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.72%chance

14566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

848

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

37.06%chance

6506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

862

Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?

Feb 13, 9:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.82%chance

15483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

963

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:03 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

107

If the Riemann hypothesis is false, how many counterexamples does it have?

May 27, 12:35 PMDec 31, 8:55 AM

3128

OptionProbability

Countably infinitely many

Uncountably many

More than twelve, but finitely many

Twelve

Four

Eight

28

25

20

10

9

8

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