Twenty One News

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Oct 16, 6:00 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

10.53%chance

4024024

OptionVotes

YES

2933

345

XAI researchers publish in a top physics journal

Jul 15, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.18%chance

491805

OptionVotes

YES

1355

806

Does Manifold "agree" with the following song lyrics (add your own)

Sep 29, 1:54 AMJan 28, 12:59 PM

181518

OptionProbability

Life's a bitch and then you die

"There is water at the bottom of the ocean" - Talking Heads

"It's not a cry that you hear at night, it's not somebody who has seen the light, it's a cold and it's a broken hallelujah"

"Take me where the future is lying, St Elmo's Fire!"

"I believe your parents did the best job they knew how to do"

"If I could fall into the sky, do you think time would pass us by?"

"Like Hephaestion who died, Alexander's lover."

"The secret of any victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious"

The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Tori Amos taken as a whole

"These bastards stole their power from the victims of the Us v. Them years, wrecking all things virtuous and true"

"Don't go making phony calls, only dial the seven-digit numbers you used to."

"Heaven is a place where nothing ever happens" -Heaven, Talking Heads

"There's things to be done all over the world but let's rebuild America first"

"Don't you have somewhere to be at 7:30?" -When You Die, MGMT

"Second chances never matter, people never change"

"Capitalism has made it this way; old fashioned fascism will take it away"

"And I dare not preach what I don't understand"

"Gotta do what you can just to keep your love alive Tryin' not to confuse it with what you do to survive In '69 I was twenty-one and I called the road my own I don't know when that road turned onto the road I'm on"

The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Eurythmics taken as a whole

"Jesus is just alright with me"

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

1265

930

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.32%chance

71152

OptionVotes

YES

1207

828

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Venus

Eris

|| WHICH OF THESE MUSICAL REFERENCES WILL HIROIKO ARAKI USE IN HIS NEXT JOJO WORKS ||

Jan 23, 11:01 PMJan 30, 10:59 PM

13344

OptionProbability

"IRON MAIDEN"

"MR. BLUE SKY"

"BOOGIE WONDERLAND" by Earth, Wind & Fire

"HOTEL CALIFORNIA" by Eagles

"LOVELY DAY" by Bill Withers

"SABOTAGE" by Beastie Boys

"WILD YOUNG HEARTS" by Noisettes

"ATOMIC CITY" by U2

"CEMETERY GATES" by Pantera

"HOT STUFF" by Donna Summer

"LOW RIDER" by War

"RUBBERBAND MAN" by The Spinners

"HOUSE OF THE RISING SUN" by The Animals

"SIGN YOUR NAME" by Sananda Maitreya

"BLURRYFACE" by Twenty One Pilots

"EMPIRE STATE OF MIND" by Jay-z

"MAKING MIRRORS" by Gotye

"CHAPMAN" (Tracy Chapman)

"I'M OUTTA LOVE" by Anastacia

"HIT THE ROAD JACK" by Ray Charles

"TOXICITY" by System of a Down

"ENJOY THE SILENCE" by Depeche Mode

"CRAZY IN LOVE" by Beyoncé

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

24.19%chance

12328

OptionVotes

YES

239

161

Will McLaren Mastercard Formula 1 Team get 3rd in the World Constructors' Championship in the 2026 season?

Mar 11, 12:52 AMDec 6, 11:59 PM

57%chance

5240

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will "Five Hinge‑Questions That Decide Whether AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 6:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.98%chance

222

OptionVotes

YES

1022

875

Twenty One News

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Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

XAI researchers publish in a top physics journal

Does Manifold "agree" with the following song lyrics (add your own)

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

|| WHICH OF THESE MUSICAL REFERENCES WILL HIROIKO ARAKI USE IN HIS NEXT JOJO WORKS ||

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will McLaren Mastercard Formula 1 Team get 3rd in the World Constructors' Championship in the 2026 season?

Will "Five Hinge‑Questions That Decide Whether AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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