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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

1.83%chance

9534412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7356

561

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.96%chance

319625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

886

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155857

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

30

6

Will AI prove one of 128 major mathematical conjectures before month X?

Jul 23, 5:07 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

283257

OptionProbability

Aug 2027

Jul 2027

Jun 2027

Apr 2027

May 2027

Mar 2027

Feb 2027

Jan 2027

Dec 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

Sep 2026

Aug 2026

73

67

64

60

60

57

53

50

43

34

23

13

0

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.23%chance

402027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1652

802

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Jul 20, 6:25 PMMar 10, 11:59 PM

10%chance

8671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Is the second Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true?

Oct 28, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.36%chance

6562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

56

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

7448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Andy Burnham last 2 years? (Niall Ferguson bet.)

Jul 3, 7:15 PMSep 29, 10:00 PM

46.08%chance

983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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