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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

3310615

OptionProbability

2029

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2030

2024

41

19

11

11

10

4

3

0

Who will be elected President of Ireland in the next Irish presidential election?

Sep 6, 10:45 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

165628

OptionProbability

Mairead McGuinness

Catherine Connolly

Michelle Keane

Micheál Martin

Frances Black

Michael McDowell

Linda Martin

Other

Peter Casey

Heather Humphreys

Cynthia Ní Mhurchú

Fintan O’Toole

Seán Kelly

Bertie Ahern

Conor McGregor

Enda Kenny

Fergus Finlay

Gerry Adams

17

17

14

8

6

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

New pipeline project proposed in Canada in next 6 months?

Jun 8, 1:09 AMDec 8, 1:06 AM

39.86%chance

7441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.44%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

157

Is Legendre's conjecture correct?

Feb 7, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

87.06%chance

8186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

160

Labour impose net migration cap below 150,000 before 2026?

Jul 21, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

7163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Is the strengthened Goldbach conjecture true?

Oct 28, 3:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.05%chance

4117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

73

Which of Trudeau's policies will be reversed?

Feb 4, 6:13 AMSep 20, 10:59 PM

558

OptionProbability

Mass immigration

Drug decriminalization

Gun ban

Marijuana legalization

50

48

27

16

Will Hazbin Hotel S2 release before the next episode of The Amazing Digital Circus

Jul 12, 12:03 AMMar 12, 11:53 PM

50.5%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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