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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6722441

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2024

2025

61

17

8

6

5

2

0

0

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

40%chance

319491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

what will be the result of the Italian constitutional referendum on March 22nd-23rd?

Mar 21, 11:05 AMMar 24, 1:59 PM

20%chance

164127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Dec 23, 9:57 PMMar 24, 11:59 PM

22.19%chance

291956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

118

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11%chance

2257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

When will AI write great tailor-made math textbooks? (see description)

Feb 15, 8:51 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2166

OptionProbability

2032-2033

>=2036 / never

2030-2031

2034-2035

2028-2029

2026-2027

23

23

19

17

10

8

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Is the strengthened Goldbach conjecture true?

Oct 28, 3:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.05%chance

4117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

73

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

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