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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

7426233

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

50

15

12

11

8

3

0

0

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

40.39%chance

319506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Jan 22, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

12600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

Is Legendre's conjecture correct?

Feb 7, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

87.06%chance

8186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

160

When will AI write great tailor-made math textbooks? (see description)

Feb 15, 8:51 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2166

OptionProbability

2032-2033

>=2036 / never

2030-2031

2034-2035

2028-2029

2026-2027

23

23

19

17

10

8

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Starmer be in the process of leaving at start of July?

Apr 23, 8:38 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.55%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

943

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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