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Prediction markets for Two Prime

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

8336949

OptionProbability

2026

2024

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

40%chance

319550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Starmer be in the process of leaving at start of July?

Apr 23, 8:38 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99.25%chance

245518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2730

4

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

Is Legendre's conjecture correct?

Feb 7, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

87.06%chance

8186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

160

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Is there a finite projective plane of order 12?

Feb 17, 12:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.87%chance

3122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Is the strengthened Goldbach conjecture true?

Oct 28, 3:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.05%chance

4117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

73

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