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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6020759

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

50

15

12

12

9

2

0

0

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

40%chance

319491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

784

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Jan 12, 12:12 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

3364

OptionProbability

Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)

Alysa LIU (USA)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Other

22

22

22

20

15

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Dec 23, 9:57 PMMar 24, 11:59 PM

52.04%chance

8250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Is Legendre's conjecture correct?

Feb 7, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

87.06%chance

8186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

160

Is there a finite projective plane of order 12?

Feb 17, 12:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.87%chance

3122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Is the strengthened Goldbach conjecture true?

Oct 28, 3:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.05%chance

4117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

73

Which of Trudeau's policies will be reversed?

Feb 4, 6:13 AMSep 20, 10:59 PM

558

OptionProbability

Mass immigration

Drug decriminalization

Gun ban

Marijuana legalization

50

48

27

16

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