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Prediction markets for Two Prime

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

4.1%chance

9934619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3768

661

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

23.61%chance

319955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

156353

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

29

6

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Jul 19, 10:52 PMMar 10, 11:59 PM

2%chance

192355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

890

16

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.63%chance

412037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

812

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Jul 20, 6:25 PMMar 10, 11:59 PM

1.53%chance

81548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

849

65

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

82%chance

121189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before December 2026

Oct 27, 5:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

4373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

478

21

Does there exist more than 51 Mersenne primes below 2^136279841-1?

Oct 23, 3:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

2206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Thailand election 2026

Dec 18, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.18%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

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