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Prediction markets for Tyler

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Will Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.58%chance

237211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3297

303

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

7.11%chance

376506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

277

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

203313

OptionProbability

Kim Bowes

Henry Oliver

Francis Fukuyama

Dean Ball

Rebecca Lowe

Séb Krier

Magnus Carlsen

Tom Holland (the historian)

Patrick Collison (again)

Jamie Dimon

C Thi Nguyen

Caroline Shaw

William Gibson

Hollis Robbins

Jonathan Sumption

Bishop Robert Barron

Will Baude

Jan Swafford

Robert Sapolsky

Sir Demis Hassabis

Jensen Huang

Aella

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Werner Herzog

Haruki Murakami

Vaclav Smil

Michel Houellebecq

John Ioannidis

Cremieux

Oprah Winfrey

Emily Wilson

Dua Lipa

Hillary Clinton

Thomas Sowell

Bari Weiss

Novak Djokovic

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Scott Alexander

Martha Nussbaum

100

100

63

63

56

50

45

43

37

33

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27

26

25

22

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20

20

18

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17

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13

13

13

12

12

12

11

11

10

10

10

10

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

0

Tyler Robinson executed to death penalty?

Sep 17, 12:00 AMSep 17, 11:59 PM

25.08%chance

191293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.5%chance

17950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

786

Tyler Robinson dies by judicial execution?

Sep 20, 4:46 AMSep 20, 4:42 AM

34.67%chance

6709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Tyler Robinson sentenced to death by December 31, 2026

Oct 22, 7:18 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4.71%chance

9445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

450

22

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.61%chance

17433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

719

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

3206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

112

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