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Prediction markets for Tyler

Tyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)

Sep 16, 9:15 PMSep 16, 9:14 PM

14018828

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Acquitted/No Punishment

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Other

64

18

7

6

3

2

1

Will Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.58%chance

237211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3297

303

Tyler Robinson dies by judicial execution?

Sep 20, 4:46 AMSep 20, 4:42 AM

17.26%chance

81719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

457

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

71520

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

34

25

22

15

1

1

1

1

Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)?

Sep 18, 11:47 PMSep 18, 11:40 PM

151251

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Acquitted

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

No result

Other

44

44

3

3

2

1

1

1

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.31%chance

181004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1775

369

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.5%chance

17950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

786

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

10%chance

11650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

170

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

5.25%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

112

Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027?

Jun 29, 1:14 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

45.34%chance

644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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