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Tyler News

Tyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)

Sep 16, 9:15 PMSep 16, 9:14 PM

13617975

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

Acquitted/No Punishment

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Other

70

16

6

3

2

2

1

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Will Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.69%chance

226361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2447

409

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

192038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

450

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

121336

OptionProbability

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Kim Bowes

Patrick Collison (again)

Hollis Robbins

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Francis Fukuyama

Dean Ball

Emily Wilson

C Thi Nguyen

Jan Swafford

Sir Demis Hassabis

Robert Sapolsky

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Martha Nussbaum

Will Baude

Werner Herzog

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Vaclav Smil

Michel Houellebecq

Jonathan Sumption

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Aella

Jensen Huang

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Bill Gates

Thomas Sowell

Novak Djokovic

Bari Weiss

Hillary Clinton

Scott Alexander

Oprah Winfrey

100

91

90

52

45

41

41

40

34

34

34

34

33

32

31

30

30

30

28

28

28

28

25

24

20

17

17

16

15

15

15

12

9

8

7

6

6

6

Will Tyler Robinson's father receive FBI reward money by Feb 31, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:44 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

4.58%chance

121032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

22

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

16900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

795

Tyler Robinson dies by judicial execution?

Sep 20, 4:46 AMSep 20, 4:42 AM

34.67%chance

6709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

62.79%chance

16231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

985

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Does the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?

Sep 18, 7:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

76

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