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Prediction markets for UC Berkeley

Which university will I be admitted into?

Sep 18, 3:22 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

2716622

OptionProbability

Oxford or Cambridge

Georgia Tech

UC San Diego

Any Ivy League school

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Cambridge

Oxford

I decide not to go to university for 2026-2027

UC Berkeley

Yale

Princeton

MIT

Harvard

47

35

34

31

27

26

22

18

18

15

14

10

8

Will I drop out of my PhD program?

Jan 11, 9:41 PMMay 31, 6:59 AM

55.97%chance

19859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

504

289

What university will generate the highest number of new Nobel Laureate faculty between 2023 and 2033?

Jan 10, 7:06 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

5814

OptionProbability

Other

UC Berkeley

Oxford University

University of Chicago

Cambridge University

Harvard University

Princeton University

MIT

Stanford University

48

48

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

What company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?

Dec 26, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11239

OptionProbability

Open AI

Google Deepmind

Other

Anthropic

Meta

UC Berkeley

40

39

12

5

3

2

Will at least 1/5 of UC Berkeley students be wearing AR/VR goggles/glasses (to study) at the campus library by eoy 2028

Feb 19, 6:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

152

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

LMArena announces monetization by mid-2026?

Jun 27, 1:23 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

53.6%chance

541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

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