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Prediction markets for UFO
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
96.07%chance
100110402717
OptionVotes
31564
8124
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
108449579
OptionProbability
76
10
5
4
4
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1539
1185
Will it be proven that MH370 was teleported by UFOs before 2030?
Aug 8, 1:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.78%chance
3922430
OptionVotes
155
79
If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?
Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
318436
OptionVotes
1072
965
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
606627
OptionProbability
21
15
14
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?
Nov 16, 6:00 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM
40%chance
162553
OptionVotes
1225
816
Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM
45%chance
362217
OptionVotes
1072
873
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM
47.89%chance
71730
OptionVotes
495
288
P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
20.13%chance
21965
OptionVotes
1006
706
Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?
Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM
22.04%chance
16708
OptionVotes
1236
909
Chemicals with unknown properties found to play large role in UFOs by 2050
Jun 7, 6:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
16.24%chance
13509
OptionVotes
1171
944