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Prediction markets for UHS

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

11857524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9296

3502

Is mister_shroom the alleged UHC CEO Assassin?

Dec 10, 5:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.11%chance

175197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3158

317

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.8%chance

13761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

319

Will there be a Manifold movie in the next 20 years?

Jan 24, 6:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

18576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

789

Will there be a female U.S. president and a female U.S. vice president concurrently in office by 2050?

May 29, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.6%chance

21572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

926

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

When will Demis Hassabis no longer have a human Executive Assistant?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

437

OptionProbability

2034-2035

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2035-2036

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

34

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Is nuh uh funny

Oct 8, 10:04 AM

250

Was the UHC CEO killer's actions ethically a net positive for humanity?

Dec 10, 1:47 AM

190

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