UK Conservative Party News

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

YES

Robert Jenrick

Other

James Cleverly

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak

YES

One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

YES

>=50

>=100

>=150

>=200

>=250

>=300

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Other

James Cleverly

YES

Robert Jenrick

Nigel Farage

Boris Johnson

Tom Tugendhat

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Priti Patel

Claire Coutinho

Chris Philip

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

YES