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Top stories

UK Government Absorbs Space Agency Into Science Department to Cut Costs

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for UK Government

Which government will form after the next UK general election?

May 5, 12:22 AMJan 2, 1:21 AM

306673

OptionProbability

Labour majority

Labour minority

Reform majority

Reform minority

Conservatives + Reform coalition

Conservatives majority

Conservatives minority

Labour + Greens + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Greens coalition

Green + Liberal Democrats coalition

Other

Conservatives + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Conservatives coalition

Labour + Reform coalition

[invalid] Coalition of more than two parties

23

17

11

10

10

5

5

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will the UK Government reverse its current stance by approving at least one new North Sea oil & gas licence in 2026?

Mar 28, 8:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.06%chance

164056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

150

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.75%chance

203806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2504

399

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

173004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1921

520

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.62%chance

32225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2901

345

Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military service before 2028?

Jan 26, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.44%chance

181102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

619

Will the UK government introduce mandatory military conscription by end of Dec 31, 2027?

Mar 3, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

20903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

31

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

34.32%chance

5508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

Will the UK Government weaken the ZEV mandate (lowering the 2026 33% target or delaying compliance) before 31 Dec 2026?

Mar 28, 9:04 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

41.76%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

282

UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)?

Jan 4, 1:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.44%chance

7335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

Jun 11, 10:06 PMJun 11, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

111

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