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Prediction markets for UK Labour

If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

Jun 3, 10:10 AMJun 3, 10:04 AM

144057

OptionProbability

0 defections

Polanski does not become Green Party leader.

1 defection

2-5 defections

6-10 defections

11+ defections

85

6

6

1

1

1

Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?

Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7.01%chance

102777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3641

275

Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?

Aug 14, 12:04 AMAug 15, 10:59 PM

45.51%chance

252729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?

Jul 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

141912

OptionProbability

>=100

>=150

>=200

>=250

>=300

>=325

>=350

>=400

95

80

68

51

38

30

24

12

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

58%chance

281502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

670

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

11509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

455

58

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will net migration be above 400k per year on average in the UK?

Dec 20, 3:37 PMDec 27, 11:59 PM

3478

OptionProbability

Labour Majority, net migration >400k

Labour Majority, net migration =<400k

Not Labour Majority, net migration >400k

Not Labour Majority, net migration =<400k

70

28

1

1

[Metaculus] Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Oct 30, 9:36 PMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45.84%chance

16471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

108

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

Mar 13, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3190

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Angela Rayner

Andy Burnham

Wes Streeting

Yvette Cooper

Bridget Phillipson

Rachel Reeves

Lisa Nandy

44

34

34

28

28

28

28

28

In which five year period will the UK Labour Party first have a woman leader?

Mar 5, 6:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8188

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

Other

2025-2029

31

29

22

17

Will Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?

Nov 8, 3:36 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

36.96%chance

9167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

172

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

36.31%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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